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Jan 8, 2013 3:00pm EST
sheets. >> china looking better, europe not as bad. >> you're, i don't know about that. >> well, we call this the economy in a coma. basically without these trillions of dollars of stimulus, we would be in a downturn, in a depression because we also have 42 trillion in private debt, the greatest debt bubble in history and that needs to unwind. basically ben bernanke and the economists are just saying we're just not going to let this slowdown happen. we're not going to let the debt de-leverage. if you don't let the debt de-leverage or restructure japan, the same thing japan has done, quantitative easing forever, you never come out of this because the debt keeps weighing on the economy so not only do you have slowing demographics. we've got a 200 to 300-pound weight on our back and you can't run very fast. we get 2% growth with massive life support. we're in the emergency room on life support only because of this trillions of dollars of stimulus. i guarantee -- >> what's the catalyst? >> you take away this stimulus for one year, and this economy dies. >> harry, stay right there. want to ge
Jan 11, 2013 3:00pm EST
doesn't shoot themselves in the foot in the next two months, which is a possibility, but if they don't, we think the economy is going to do well this year. we think stocks will go higher. inflation is relatively tame, pes relatively low. so even we're at a five-year high, higher and we went down. we think the market is poised to do better over the next year and actually over the next three to five years. >> michael, where are you putting money to work right here at a portfolio manager? >> well, we're putting it all over the place because we run a diversified funds so precious metals, shorter-term bonds because of the potential of higher rates and high grade corporates as well as equity markets, both u.s. and non-u.s. in the short term the stock market can outperform while the economy does not, but in the longer term those two things are going to come back to equilibri equilibrium, so, you know, the market is at a high here, corporate earnings in q3 were very weak. i think q4 earnings will tell a lot, and i think the political dynamic coming up in march is going to be interesting. i d
Jan 10, 2013 3:00pm EST
in front of. i don't think it's guys looking to buy and sell. i think these are guys that are seeing that this is the play right now. you're getting in front of it, and they are going to be right there right through the move. >> steven, you guys don't love the financials. we had your chief investment vat gist on "halftime" today, and financials aren't one of the top sectors that you guys are looking for. you're not looking for a big repeat in what we had in 2012. >> i think that's true. it's more of a stock selection than it is a benchmark relative, so relative to the benchmark we're underweight, but there are certain names we do like. they had a very, very good run. you bring up a very, very good point. if withy go back, what's the federal reserve trying to accomplish? they are forcing investors up the risk curve so what we're seeing is looking at valuations ultimately matter, as in the case of financials but globally diversified portfolio risk assets is where a lot of people will have to go, emerging markets, global credit. even in commodity space, a longer time horizon, unavoidabl
Jan 7, 2013 3:00pm EST
a bit of wind behind our sails. however, we don't think that 2013 will be as strong as 2012 given the fact that so many people were underexposed stocks in 2012. we've had this kind of natural rotation back in. i think 2013 will be positive. >> but are we really done is the question. we've got the debt ceiling debt bait coming. peter, what's your take? >> well, i think the debt ceiling, we've been through that before -- once before. this second time i think it's going to be actually maybe too much to say a piece of cake, but we've seen it before and i think that we will sail through that. and earnings, i'm looking at earnings to be probably sideways this past quarter. going into 2013 i think it's going to be one heck of a year. >> you mean a strong year? >> yes. strong. >> and you think stocks react to that? >> i do. i think they will react very strongly. i think there's a lot of risk, uncertainty out there. but on top of that, i think you will see stock buybacks. and i also still think you will see some dividend increases which are great for investors. >> brian, do you think it's
Jan 9, 2013 3:00pm EST
is that the profit margins will decline. we don't believe that's the case outside of a few industries that have been very aggressive capital spenders, so if you stay outside of the industries that have been slow aggressively invested in capital, i think margins can sustain which means stocks are cheap. >> yeah. >> goldman sachs was a no doubt this morning that kind of reflected a lot of what i think is the first quarter is going to be rough, and because of things that we talked about before with the debt ceiling negotiations and the sequestration cuts and also a bumping earnings season, alcoa is nothing to brag about, and then we get through that and go through the end of the year and i think gains are backloaded. that was goldman's position. >> makes sense. what's your take on the third quarter, typically good because you've got the holiday spending but certainly a different kind of quarter with the dysfunction and the fiscal cliff and the uncertainty over the economy? >> when we saw the third quarter be reported, we saw a huge buildup of inventory in almost every region of the world. everything ra
Search Results 0 to 4 of about 5